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<font face="Trebuchet MS" size=6><b>08Jun23: Record net migration and the
rising demand for housing<br>
</font><font size=5>
<a href="https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/514/record-net-migration-and-the-rising-demand-for-housing" eudora="autourl">
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/514/record-net-migration-and-the-rising-demand-for-housing<br>
</a></font><img src="cid:.0" width=840 height=294 alt="Emacs!"><h2><b></b>
</h2><font size=5><b>
<a href="https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/pdfs/MW514-record-net-migration-and-the-rising-demand-for-housing.pdf" eudora="autourl">
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/pdfs/MW514-record-net-migration-and-the-rising-demand-for-housing.pdf<br>
</a></b></font><i>8 June, 2023<br><br>
</i><h2><b>Summary</b></h2>1. If net migration to the UK is allowed to
continue at the present record level of 606,000 per year, the UK
population is projected to grow by more than 15 million by 2046 – far
surpassing the level of 80 million before mid-century. It is estimated
that this would result in the need to build between six and eight million
more homes - equal to between 15 and 18 more cities the size of
Birmingham.<sup>[1]</sup> In contrast, if net migration were reduced to
100,000 per year or less, the impact of the housing shortage would be
eased and young people would have a brighter prospect of putting their
feet on the property ladder. Doing so would also preserve more beautiful
UK countryside from being bulldozed to make way for housing.<br><br>
<h2><b>Key points</b></h2>
<ul>
<li>The UK population is now 67 million but new Migration Watch UK
projections estimate that it will increase to between 83 and 87 million
by 2046 if net migration continues at the record level of just over
600,000 per year.
<li>Immigration is the largest component of demand for additional housing
<li>Population growth over that period would mean the need to build
between six and eight million more homes, depending upon assumptions.
<li>That is equivalent to between 15 and 18 cities the size of
Birmingham, which in 2021 had 423,500 households (according to Census
statistics).
<li>Cutting net migration levels to 100,000 per year or less would help
young people to get on the property ladder and preserve more of our
beautiful UK countryside from being lost forever to housebuilding.
</ul><br>
<h2><b>Introduction</b></h2>2. High immigration has worsened the UK’s
housing crisis by injecting significant additional demand when there is
already insufficient available accommodation. This means higher prices.
Government analysis suggests that high immigration since the late 1990s
helped to drive up house prices by a
fifth.<sup>
[<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/699846/OFF_SEN_Ad_Hoc_SFR_House_prices_v_PDF.pdf">
2</a>]</sup> As a government minister put it recently: <i>“It is obvious
that a rising population due to net migration puts pressure on housing
supply, ultimately leading to rising
prices.”</i><sup>
[<a href="https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2023-05-23/%31%38%36%34%38%30">
3</a>]</sup> A housing analyst explained: <i>“The worsening housing
shortage makes properties less affordable as rising demand for homes and
insufficient supply contribute to pushing prices further
up.”</i><sup>
[<a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/record-migration-is-making-the-housing-crisis-worse-7s26dzjf7#:~:text=The%20government%27s%20stated%20target%2C%20now,be%20much%20higher%20than%20expected">
4</a>]<br><br>
</sup>3. Immigration is the largest component of rising demand. The most
recent set of household projections produced by the Office for National
Statistics, based on 2018 data, suggest that immigration at a level of
net migration to England which is around half the present level would
account for a majority (57%) of additional households during the 25 years
until
2043.<sup>
[<a href="https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/486/impact-of-immigration-on-demand-for-homes-in-england">
5</a>]<br><br>
</sup>4. The government has set a target (now ‘advisory’) to build
300,000 homes per year. This target was calculated on the basis of
underlying demographic factors, household formation rates and trends in
the housing market as well as ongoing net migration levels. However, the
current level of immigration far outstrips the target (which is based on
2016 analysis of 2012 statistics). One analyst has argued that when
household formation and market trends are taken into account, England
actually needed to build 461,000 homes in 2022 to cope with demand that
has been hugely boosted by high
immigration.<sup>
[<a href="https://capx.co/thanks-to-migration-were-running-up-a-down-escalator-when-it-comes-to-housing/">
6</a>]</sup> Yet the annual increase in the dwelling stock in England has
averaged only 180,000 per year over the past decade, while the number of
homes added in 2022 was just 235,000. The insufficient supply of homes
will only be exacerbated as high immigration continues to drive up
demand.<br><br>
5. Some commentators suggest boosting housebuilding is the answer. But
tackling this deepening crisis requires immigration to be reduced. Since
the last record spike in numbers immigration in 2015, the drive to
bulldoze UK countryside to make way for more homes has become more
intense. The number of local authorities giving way to applications for
building on green belt land has risen in recent years. Government
statistics show that approximately 65 square miles of supposedly
‘protected’ land was set aside for housebuilding between 2015 and
2021.<sup>
[<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2020-to-2021/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2020-21-statistical-release">
7</a>]</sup> And apart from protected land being added in the North East
of England, during 2021/22 every other region saw net losses in green
belt
land.<sup>
[<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2021-to-2022/local-authority-green-belt-england-2021-22-statistical-release#Table-4">
8</a>]<br><br>
</sup>6. Migration Watch UK estimates that, should net migration remain
at 606,000 per annum, it would mean the need to build housing equal to
between 15 and 18 cities the size of Birmingham just to accommodate the
population rise over that period, not even accounting for the future
housing needs of the base population.<i> Where would all of these homes
be built? Which areas of natural beauty would fall victim to the
bulldozer if this were to occur?<br>
</i><img src="cid:.1" width=1003 height=462 alt="Emacs!"><br><br>
</i><h2><b>The impact of immigration</b></h2>7. Over the past 25 years,
the UK population has increased by nearly nine million, from just over 58
million in 1996 to 67 million in 2021. This has meant the need for more
than four million more homes. Average household size has fluctuated
slightly above and then below the level of 2.4 people per household. It
now stands at 2.35 people per household.<br><br>
8. Between 1996 and 2022, net migration from overseas to the UK has run
at an average level of 190,000 per year. However, the five-year average
level has tripled from 113,000 between 1996 and 2000 to 347,000 between
2018 and 2022. The record level of net migration for the UK was reached
in 2022 when 606,000 more people immigrated to the UK than emigrated –
more than double the average net migration level during the twenty years
before that, which was about a quarter of a million (see Figure 1
below).<br>
<img src="cid:.2" width=995 height=222 alt="Emacs!"><h2><b></b></h2><i>
Table 1: Numbers and percentage of increase in households by place of
birth of household reference
person<sup>
[<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/articles/familiesandhouseholdsstatisticsexplained/2021-03-02">
9</a>]</sup> for different periods up to 2019 (ONS Labour Force
Survey).<br>
Figure 1: Net migration to the UK, 1996 to 2022 (ONS long-term migration
estimates). Households headed by those born overseas
<br><br>
9. According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey of private households,
the number of households headed by persons born who were outside the UK
rose by 2.7 million between 1990 and 2019. The number increased from
<b>1.6 million</b> out of a total of 22.6 million in 1990 (7%) to <b>4.3
million</b>, out of just over 27 million (<b>15%</b> of the total) by
2019.<br>
10. As Table 1 below shows, since 1995, 65% of the additional households
created in the UK for whom birth place data was recorded have been
‘headed’ by a person born overseas.<br><br>
</i><h2><b>Population projections upon which these estimates are
based</b></h2>11. The findings of this paper are based upon UK population
projections – produced by Migration Watch UK - for the period from 2021
until 2046. One of the key variables in population projections is the
question of what the total fertility rate (or TFR, i.e. the average
number of children that born to a female over their lifetime) is likely
to be going forward.<br><br>
12. To provide historical context, during the period between 1996 and
2021, the UK’s TFR has fallen from just over 1.90 births per woman in
2010 and 2012 to just 1.53 births per woman in 2021 – well below
replacement level. See Figure 2 below.<br><br>
13. For the first set of population projections contained in this paper,
the TFR is estimated to continue at the level of 1.53. The use of such an
assumption is debateable as the lowest recent TFR in 2021 may have been
inextricably linked to the unique conditions of the Covid pandemic which
persisted into that year. Indeed, there was a slight uptick in TFR in
2021 in England and Wales. However, it remains to be seen whether such a
trend will continue.<br>
<img src="cid:.0" width=995 height=457 alt="Emacs!"><h2><b></b></h2>
Figure 2: Total fertility rate for the UK, 1975 to 2021 (ONS births
data).<br><br>
14. However, it is also possible that the UK’s TFR will return to levels
last seen in 2015/16 as a result of an improvement in the general
economic and political outlook and a reduction of inflation. In order to
provide an upper range for our population projections, an alternative set
of projections includes a conjectural assumption of 1.77 births per woman
going forward.<br><br>
15. Figures 3 and 4 show the population projections at varying levels of
net migration until the mid-2040s assuming TFR of both 1.53 and 1.77
respectively. It must be remembered that projections only show the
implications for the future if the initial assumptions continue to hold.
The lower level of TFR shows a range between the population initially
remaining stable (before beginning a decline) at a level of net migration
of 100,000 per year by 2046, and an increase to 83 million should the
level of net migration remain at 606,000 per year.<br>
<img src="cid:.1" width=997 height=460 alt="Emacs!"><h2><b></b></h2>
Figure 3: Projected population of the UK 2021-2046 (millions) at various
levels of net migration. TFR = 1.53. Migration Watch UK
analysis.<br><br>
16. The higher level of TFR suggests a population in the range of between
70 million (at net migration of 100,000 per year) and a higher potential
population level of nearly 87 million by 2046 if net migration continues
to run at the present record level of 606,000 per year.<br><br>
<img src="cid:.2" width=999 height=472 alt="Emacs!"><h2><b></b></h2>
Figure 4: Projected population of the UK 2021-2046 (millions) at various
levels of net migration. TFR = 1.77. Migration Watch UK
analysis.<br><br>
<h2><b>Household growth, household size and population change</b></h2>17.
Change in the number of households is driven by population trends,
adjustments in the age-structure of the population, social factors and
birth and death rates – all of which influence the number of people
living by themselves and in households of different sizes.<br><br>
18. For most of the 20th century the number of households rose faster
than population growth. Households in 1911 had an average of more than
four people per dwelling, but this fell to just under 2.4 by 2022.<br>
<img src="cid:.3" width=987 height=416 alt="Emacs!"><h2><b></b></h2>
Figure 5: Average UK household size (number of persons per household)
since 1996 (ONS).<br><br>
<h2><b>Assumed household size for these projections</b></h2>19. Our
projections are based upon a household size going forward between 2.3 and
2.5 people per household, with a mid-point estimate of <b><i>2.4 people
per household</i></b>. We explain the use of this assumption
below.<br><br>
20. In their most recent household projections (principal projection,
2018-based figures), the ONS have suggested that the average household
size may fall to 2.24 by the early 2040s. Such a fall would be broadly
line with the trend that has seen household size fall from 2.42 in 1996
to 2.36 in 2022 (see Figure 5 above). Over the period of projection, on
these assumptions, household size would average 2.3 (2018 to
2043).<sup>[10]</sup> We take this latter figure as the lower bound of
our assumed household size as it appears to represent the latest
indication of the ONS view on projected household size in the period up
until the 2040s.<br><br>
21. For an upper boundary of estimated household size, we take into
account the fact that migrant-led household sizes are larger on average
than those led by UK-born people.
<sup>
[<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/internationalmigrationandthechangingnatureofhousinginenglandwhatdoestheavailableevidenceshow/2017-05-25">
11</a>]</sup> Net migration levels are now at a record high – and a
growing proportion of population growth has been the direct or indirect
result of immigration (this share having risen from 70% in 2012 to 90% in
2019). This might exert upward pressure on household size. For example,
in London – which received net overseas migration totalling 1.2 million
between 2001 and 2019 and where around half of current heads of
households were born outside of the UK - household size has risen
significantly, up from 2.35 to
2.69.<sup>
[<a href="https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CPS_THE_CASE_FOR_HOUSEBUILDING2.pdf">
12</a>]</sup> However, other factors (e.g. the increase in the number of
people living alone) could counteract any such effect. We take 2.5 as our
upper limit of household size across the projection period.<br><br>
22. We take the mid-point between 2.3 and 2.5 as the basis for our
estimate, i.e. 2.4 people per household. The projections assume a
constant ratio of household size to population size. They take no account
of changes in the distribution of household size, for example the
increase of single-person households of older people.<br><br>
<h2><b>Potential impact on household numbers as a result of population
change<br><br>
<br>
</b></h2><h3><b>a) Lower scenario (Total Fertility Rate:
1.53)</b></h3>23. In order to calculate what the above might mean for the
change in the number of households, it is first necessary to calculate
the total share of the UK population which consists of the ‘household
population’ i.e. that part of the population living in private
households, not in communal establishments of various
kinds.<sup>[13]</sup> The total household population in 2018 accounted
for 98% of the total UK population in the ONS’s mid-year estimate. We
therefore take this as the basis for our proportion of the household
population as a share of projected UK population going forward.<br><br>
24. We divide projected population totals by 2.4 people per household.
This indicates projected change in the number of households at different
levels of migration. However, it needs to be stressed that these
projections do not take into account factors such as household formation
rates or housing market trends, nor do they account for the future
additional housing needs of the base UK population. Table 2 below shows
our estimates using the TFR assumption of 1.53 births per woman. They
indicate that net migration of 606,000 per year would drive a total
population increase of nearly 16 million over the 25-year period, with
6.5 million more households resulting from such growth
alone.<sup>[14]</sup> Again, these numbers would be <b><i>in
addition</i></b> to the housebuilding that is always needed even in the
absence of any population growth. Cutting net migration to 100,000 per
year would greatly reduce the pressure of increased demand for housing
compared with 606,000.<br>
<img src="cid:.4" width=987 height=231 alt="Emacs!"><br>
Table 2: Estimated increase in the number of households to 2046 at
different levels of projected population growth by migration variant.
TFR: 1.53. Migration Watch UK analysis. These projected numbers would be
<b><i>in addition</i></b> to the housebuilding that is always needed even
in the absence of any population growth. Population projections at
different migration variants (TFR: 1.53)Net migration: 100,000 per
yearNet migration: 245,000 per yearNet migration: 350,000 per yearNet
migration: 488,000 per yearNet migration: 606,000 per year
Population change: 2021-2046minus 196,000 5,586,000 7,644,000 12,054,000
15,778,000<br>
Estimated change in number of households (2021-46) at average household
size of 2.4 minus 82,000 2,327,500 3,185,000 5,022,500 6,574,167<br>
<b>Added homes needed per year due to population growth N/A 93,100
127,400 200,900 262,967<br><br>
<h3><b>b) Higher scenario (Total Fertility Rate: 1.77)</b></h3>25. Table
3 below shows estimated household growth by 2046 under a population
projection scenario including an assumed TFR of 1.77 births per
woman.<br><br>
26. The projections suggest that if net migration continues at the
present level of 606,000 per year, the population would rise to just
under 87 million over 25 years (an increase of nearly 19 million),
resulting in an increase of nearly eight million households. This would
mean the need to build more than 310,000 homes per year on the basis of
population increase over the period alone (i.e. additional to the needs
of the ‘base’ population).<br><br>
27. In contrast, a net migration scenario of 100,000 per year, even at a
TFR of 1.77, only increases the population by 2.4 million, meaning less
than a million more households over the period (40,000 more per
year).<br>
<img src="cid:.0" width=989 height=211 alt="Emacs!"><br>
Table 3: Estimated increase in the number of households at different
levels of projected population growth by migration variant. TFR: 1.77.
Migration Watch UK analysis. NB These projected numbers would be <b><i>in
addition</i></b> to the housebuilding that is always needed even in the
absence of any population growth. Population projections at different
migration variants (TFR: 1.77)Net migration: 100,000 per yearNet
migration: 245,000 per yearNet migration: 350,000 per yearNet migration:
488,000 per yearNet migration: 606,000 per year Population change:
2021-2046 2,352,000 7,056,000 10,486,000 14,994,000 18,816,000 Estimated
change in number of households (2021-46) at average household size of
2.980,000 2,940,000 4,369,170 6,247,500 7,840,000 <b>Added homes needed
per year due to population growth 39,200 117,600 174,767 249,900
313,600<br><br>
<h2><b>Conclusion</b></h2>28. In 2021, while giving evidence to a
parliamentary committee, then Home Secretary Priti Patel admitted that
the UK ‘simply do[es] not have the infrastructure or the accommodation’
to meet demand created by those arriving from
abroad.<sup>
[<a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/2914/pdf/">15</a>
]</sup> Given the UK was already in the midst of an acute housing
shortage, it is relevant to ask why the government enacted policy changes
that would drive immigration up to levels never seen before in British
history. Ministers despite having been elected on clear and repeated
manifesto promises to do the very opposite. As the number of arrivals
from abroad continues to rise very sharply due to record work, study and
family visas, refugee immigration running into hundreds of thousands per
year and the untrammelled flow of illegal boats across the English
Channel, the UK’s housing crisis has no end in sight. It is set to worsen
unless urgent action is taken now to significantly lower the level of
immigration to the UK.<br><br>
29. Immigration has driven up house prices, making it more difficult more
many to afford a mortgage deposit. Such trends are set to continue as
added demand from overseas arrivals skyrockets. Indeed, this paper has
shown that, <b><i>if current levels of immigration continue, the UK will
have to build between 15 and 18 more cities the size of Birmingham to
house the growing UK population; a population that would be on course to
hit between 83 and 87 million by 2046.</i></b> To urgently ease
congestion strains and crippling pressure on housing, land, community
amenities and the environment, it is essential that the government
reduces net migration to the UK to less than 100,000 per year. As well as
helping to ease the housing crisis, this would also protect more of the
UK’s irreplaceable countryside from being bulldozed and lost
forever.<br><br>
<h3><b>Footnotes</b></h3>
<ol>
<li>Census figures for 2021 show that Birmingham presently has 423,500
households with a population of 1.1 million people.
<li>Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government bulletin,
‘Analysis of the determinants of house price changes’, April 2018, URL:
<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/699846/OFF_SEN_Ad_Hoc_SFR_House_prices_v_PDF.pdf">
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste…
N_Ad_Hoc_SFR_House_prices_v_PDF.pdf</a>
<li>Parliamentary answer, 31 May 2023. The Minister added: “There is
evidence suggesting that immigration has contributed to rising house
prices. The impact on prices in a local area of course depends on local
supply and a variety of other factors. The Migration Advisory Committee
found in 2018 that at a local authority level a 1% increase in population
due to net migration increased house prices by 1%. DLUHC internal
analysis supports a link between net migration and rising house prices.”
URL:
<a href="https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2023-05-23/%31%38%36%34%38%30">
https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2023-05-23/%31%38%36%34%38%30</a>
<li>Aynsley Lammin, ‘Record migration is making the housing crisis
worse’, The Sunday Times, 28 May 2023, URL:
<a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/record-migration-is-making-the-housing-crisis-worse-7s26dzjf7#:~:text=The%20government%27s%20stated%20target%2C%20now,be%20much%20higher%20than%20expected">
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/record-migration-is-making-the…
e%20much%20higher%20than%20expected</a>.
<li>The 57% figure is calculated by subtracting the increase under a zero
migration scenario from the increase envisioned by the ONS’s high
migration scenario (at 263,000 per year to England – about half of the
present level of net migration). This would mean 2.7 million homes
needing to be built due to future immigration alone out of a total
increase over the period of 4.7 million (or 57%). See our January 2021
paper, ‘Impact of immigration on demand for homes in England’, URL:
<a href="https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/486/impact-of-immigration-on-demand-for-homes-in-england">
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/486/impact-of-imm…
tion-on-demand-for-homes-in-england</a> ONS 2018-based household
projections, published June 2020, URL:
<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2018based">
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand…
holdprojectionsforengland/2018based</a>
<li>Karl Williams in CapX, ‘Thanks to migration, we’re running up a down
escalator when it comes to housing’, June 2023, URL:
<a href="https://capx.co/thanks-to-migration-were-running-up-a-down-escalator-when-it-comes-to-housing/">
https://capx.co/thanks-to-migration-were-running-up-a-down-escalator-when-it-comes-to-housing/</a>
<li>For the 2020/21 green belt statistics, see here. URL:
<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2020-to-2021/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2020-21-statistical-release">
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-be…
england-2020-21-statistical-release</a> Also read our piece from March
2021. URL:
<a href="https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2021/03/12/save-our-green-space-by-restoring-sense-to-immigration-policy">
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2021/03/12/save-our-green-s…
storing-sense-to-immigration-policy</a>
<li>Gov.UK, ‘Local authority green belt: England 2021-22 - statistical
release’, September 2022, URL:
<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2021-to-2022/local-authority-green-belt-england-2021-22-statistical-release#Table-4">
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-be…
2021-22-statistical-release#Table-4</a>
<li>According to the ONS, ‘a 'household reference person' (HRP) is
(current definition, post-2001) the householder, who is the household
member who owns the accommodation; is legally responsible for the rent;
or occupies the accommodation as reward of their employment, or through
some relationship to its owner who is not a member of the household. If
there are joint householders, the one with the highest income is the HRP.
If their income is the same, then the eldest one is the HRP.’ ONS, URL:
<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/articles/familiesandhouseholdsstatisticsexplained/2021-03-02">
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsa…
holdsstatisticsexplained/2021-03-02</a>
<li>For example, see the ONS 2018-based household projections, principal
projection, released June 2020, which estimates a household size of 2.24
in 2043.
<li>The ONS has said: “In 2015, the average household size in England
where the (head of household) was born in the UK was 2.3 residents per
household. The average household size where the (head of household) was
born outside the EU was 3.0 residents per household, which is slightly
higher than that for households where the (head of household) was EU born
(2.6 residents).” ONS, “International migration and the changing nature
of housing in England – what does the available evidence show?”, May
2017, URL:
<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/internationalmigrationandthechangingnatureofhousinginenglandwhatdoestheavailableevidenceshow/2017-05-25">
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand…
theavailableevidenceshow/2017-05-25</a>
<li>Centre for Policy Studies, ‘The Case for Housebuilding’, URL:
<a href="https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CPS_THE_CASE_FOR_HOUSEBUILDING2.pdf">
https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CPS_THE_CASE_FOR_HOUSEBUILDING2.pdf</a>
<li>For the 2011 census a household was defined as: ‘one person living
alone; or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same
address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting
room or dining area’.
<li>Again this number does not take into account household formation
rates and housing market trends from which the current government target
of 300,000 (which is based upon 2014 projections) is derived, so the
actual number of homes needed may vary considerably.
<li>The context of these comments was in discussion of the resettlement
of Afghans to the UK following the seizure of power by the Taliban in
August 2021. Q2, p.3 of then Home Secretary Priti Patel’s testimony to a
House of Lords committee, October 2021, URL:
<a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/2914/pdf/">
https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/2914/pdf/</a> Also see our
piece published in February 2022, URL:
<a href="https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/02/10/we-simply-do-not-have-the-infrastructure-or-the-accommodation-admits-home-secretary">
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/02/10/we-simply-do-not…
accommodation-admits-home-secretary</a>
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