TDN 8 Nov. Rabin's death may help T

[kurdeng at aps.nl]

Subject: TDN 8 Nov. Rabin's death may help Turkey with customs union

         id VT26090; Tue, 14 Nov 1995 17:34:31 -0800


Think-tank : Rabin's death may help Turkey with customs union
makovsky: "The timing of Turkish election helps cu ratification as
well"

Turkish daily news

washington - a senior u.S. Think-tank analyst told the tdn that the
assassination of former israeli prime minister yitzhak rabin might
help Turkey's chances of getting into the european customs union (cu).

The european parliament will vote to ratify Turkey's membership on
dec. 14. alan makovsky, an expert on Turkish politics and senior
fellow at the washington institute for near east policy who also
served at the u.S. State department, said rabin's assassination
increased the sense of instability in the region.

This may be an additional factor to predispose the european parliament
to ratify Turkey's cu membership for fear that not doing so may play
into the hands of anti-western forces in Turkey and thus contribute to
political instability in the middle east, makovsky explained to the
tdn.

In a "policy watch" analysis paper, makovsky also said that Ciller
timed the Turkish election pretty well, for dec. 24, Ten days after
the ep ratification vote.

"The december 24 election date could itself enhance prospects for
ratification, since many euro-mps are sensitive to the electoral
benefit that a refusal will bestow on the pro-islamic welfare party".

Makovsky praised the fact that the recent government crisis which
ended up with Ciller receiving the vote of confidence for Turkey's
52nd cabinet on nov. 5, " Has been handled strictly under civilian
auspices and constitutionally prescribed legal process."

however he also pointed to the fact that personal rivalries among
political leaders still presented a serious problem for Turkey.

"One of the tendencies that has most bedeviled the development of
democratic culture of Turkey, the propensity of politicians to put
personal rivalries ahead of national interest, remains a serious-
though perhaps abating - problem," he said.

"The Ciller-baykal game of chicken caused Turkey to lose more than a
month at one of the most important junctures in its history.

Had Ciller failed to reform article 8 for want of a viable government,
it would have been because of the chaos she largely brought on herself
and prospects for Turkey's on-schedule entry into customs union
would have virtually disappeared."


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 * Origin: APS Amsterdam (aps.nl), bbs +31-20-6842147 (16:31/2.0)