URGENT: U.S. Proposes Missile Sale

[kurd-l at burn.ucsd.edu]

From: akin at kurdish.org (American Kurdish Information Network (AKIN))
Subject: URGENT: U.S. Proposes Missile Sale To Turkey


Media/activist alert
November 22, 1995


                                         contact: Lora Lumpe 202/675-1018
                                                  Paul Pineo 202/675-1016
                                            Arms Sales Monitoring Project
                                        Federation of American Scientists
                                     http://www.fas.org/pub/gen/fas/asmp/


ADMINISTRATION PROPOSES MISSILE SALE TO TURKEY

The Clinton Administration is expected to notify Congress of the proposed
Foreign Military Sale to Turkey of 120 Army tactical missiles (ATACMS) on
Monday, 27 November. Congress will then have 15 days to review the sale
before the administration may go forward with the $90 million deal. Export
to Turkey of this weapon system---which has not previously been sold to any
foreign government---is objectionable on many grounds.

Weapon profile

According to the U.S. Army handbook Weapon Systems 1992, ATACMS is a
"ground-launched, conventional, surface-to-surface, semi-guided ballistic
missile," with a maximum range of 165 km. The system is used to attack
soft, stationary and semi-fixed targets. The missile carries a cluster
munition (M74) warhead, containing 950 bomblets. This
anti-personnel/anti-materiel cluster warhead spews shrapnel over an area of
150 square meters. ATACMS are launched from the M270 launcher, the same one
used for Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). Turkey would fire ATACMS
from the 12 MLRS launch vehicles which It currently has in stock. The Army
is now extending the ATACMS range to over 300 km by reducing the payload
weight. This improved ATACMS will carry only 275 M74 bomblets.

Program history

Loral Vought, of Dallas, TX is the prime contractor. ATACMS entered
low-rate initial production for the U.S. Army in 1989 and became
operational in August 1990. Production was speeded up to permit the
system's use in Operation Desert Storm. The Army fired 32 ATACMS during the
war, destroying Iraqi surface-to-air missile sites, logistics and refueling
sites, convoys, and multiple launch rocket and howitzer batteries.
According to Conduct of the Persian Gulf War (DOD, April 1992), "During one
ATACMS strike, more than 200 unarmored vehicles were destroyed as they
attempted to cross a bridge." ATACMS has not been sold to any country.

Cost/financing

The sale will cost Turkey nearly $90 million. The missiles are
approximately $250,000 each. Although Turkey is slated to receive XXX
million in security assistance from the United States in fiscal year 1996,
Turkey reportedly would finance this deal out of national funds.

Missile proliferation concerns

The Army's Weapons Systems 1994 handbook identifies variants of the
Soviet-made Scud missile, the Soviet made SS-21 and the Israeli-made
Jericho missile as ATACMS "foreign counterparts." These systems are covered
by missile export restrictions embodied in the Missile Technology Control
Regime (MTCR), the 25 member missile non-proliferation effort initiated by
the United States in 1987. Turkey, while a member of NATO, is not a member
of the MTCR. Although the range of the current model ATACMS is below the
300 km threshold of the MTCR, the U.S. has argued in the past for
prohibitions on the export of any missile that could be modified to travel
a distance of 300 km, which ATACMS clearly can be. The administration says
that it has addressed MTCR concerns by including software modifications
which render the rocket motor un-removable. This statement, however, is
unlikely to be persuasive to other countries which the United States and
its allies are pressuring to limit such missile sales.

Unexploded ordnance

Each of the 120 ATACMS warheads contains 950 bomblets. The bomblets are
said to have a low dud rate of 4 percent or less. This dud rate translates
into 38 bomblets per missile. If 10 ATACMS were fired, approximately 400
pieces of unexploded ordnance would remain on the ground, posing a hazard
similar to that posed by anti-personnel landmines.

Kurdish war

The Turkish armed forces have cheaper means available to fight their war
against Turkish Kurds (cluster and gravity bombs, artillery, helicopter
launched missiles). However, as the above excerpt from Persian Gulf War
notes, ATACMS are very effective against convoys and other soft targets.
Mitigating against their use is the observability of ATACMS firings by
satellite and other reconnaissance means; it would be impossible to hide
the use of these weapons. However, since the U.S. has accepted the use by
Turkish armed forces of other U.S.-supplied arms against the Kurds, use of
this system might be presumed acceptable as well. (See State Department
report to Congress dated 1 June 1995 on use by Turkey of U.S. supplied
arms.)

Justification

Turkey claims it needs the ATACMS as a deep strike anti-armor weapon
against a potential threat posed by several thousand tanks in Syria, Iran
and Iraq. However, ATACMS is an offensively oriented weapon, and one that
is not particularly effective against hard targets. Moreover, Turkey
already has several defensive anti-armor options available. It has F-16
fighter-attack jets and attack helos with anti-armor missiles. For
closer-in defense against an armor attack, Turkey has MLRS launchers and
missiles with a range of 32 km nearly 1,000 heavy tanks imported from the
United States over the past several years. Political reasons are likely
playing into the administration decision to sell this system now: an effort
to maintain access to Incyrlik air base for use in Operation Provide
Comfort (enforcement of no-fly zone in northern Iraq); support for Tansu
Ciller's shaky government; show U.S. staunch support for Turkey to bolster
Turkey's effort to join the EU Customs Union. Each of these political
objectives could be achieved in some other manner.



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