[Diggers350] German research -- 'peak oil is here'
mm at iniref.org
Sat Sep 4 19:01:39 BST 2010
Global Systemic Crisis / Second half of 2010: The global systems four single points of failure
Each day the news confirm the extent to which the global systemic crisis has now entered into the phase of global geopolitical dislocation, even if the media only timidly begin to interpret the historic upheavals which unfold before our own eyes. For LEAP/E2020, the second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure (1) of the international system analyzed in this GEAB issue. The general context is that which has been outlined in previous GEAB reports, thats to say a recovery
of the world economic crisis after a temporary freeze due to stimulation measures. But before entering into the detail of these anticipations on the unfolding of the economic and financial crisis in the second half of 2010, lets take note that the beginning of June 2010 provides two particularly striking examples of the accelerated collapse of the global system of these past decades: one in terms of global economic governance, the other concerning the ability of the United States to control its own allies (see GEAB N°46).
Having put recent events, symptomatic of the acceleration of world geopolitical dislocation, into perspective, the four individual points of failure in the second half of 2010 (2), according to LEAP/E2020, are as follows:
Western public debt: when insolvency becomes intolerable
European austerity: when contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stablility
Chinese inflation: when China is going to begin to export its inflation
US contraction: from « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »
Each one will be affected by a major shock during the course of the second half of 2010, leading to a sectorial, regional or global crisis.
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Paul Mobbs wrote:
> 1. German research -- 'peak oil is here'
"# Crisis of political legitimacy: The Bundeswehr study also raises
the survival of democracy itself. Parts of the population could perceive
upheaval triggered by peak oil "as a general systemic crisis." This would
create "room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing
government." Fragmentation of the affected population is likely and
extreme cases lead to open conflict.""
Therefore it is important that we strengthen democracy as governance by
the people. Leaving governance as it commonly is, indirect democracy,
"representative government", may lead to further unwise policy and
inadequate deliberation and planning in the face of the problems and
We propose that sovereignty of the people as opposed to usurped power
exercised by elites should be established in constitution. Elements of
direct democracy such as the citizens' law proposal, the binding veto
referendum and the recall of elected officials will be needed. Ways to
improve information of the people and deliberation of crucial issues
should be worked out and supported.
More about citizen-led democracy may be found via http://www.iniref.org/
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