Fukushima cancer forecast underlines need for evacuation

Paul Mobbs mobbsey at gn.apc.org
Sun Apr 3 20:58:25 BST 2011

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Low Level Radiation Campaign are circulating new information relating to 
Fukushima accident:

Get the Chris busby's report from LLRC web site -- 

There's a report on the media farce surrounding the reporting of radiation 
levels on Counterpunch -- http://counterpunch.org/busby03282011.html

Chris busby on Russia Today via Youtube -- 


- ----------  Forwarded Message  ----------

Subject: Fukushima cancer forecast underlines need for evacuation
Date: Sunday, April 03, 2011, 08:13:36 pm
From: "Richard Bramhall" <bramhall at llrc.org>
To: "info llrc" <info at llrc.org>

417,000 cancers forecast for Fukushima 200 km contamination zone by 2061 
Scientific Secretary of the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR), 
Professor Chris Busby, has released calculations of the cancer incidence to be 
expected in fallout areas of Japan. Using data from the International Atomic 
Energy Agency and official Japanese web sites he has used two methods to 
estimate the numbers of cancer cases. He compares these results with estimates 
derived from ICRP modelling. 

The "Tondel" Method is based on a conservative study by Martin Tondel in 
northern Sweden. This examined cancer incidence during 10 years after 
Chernobyl. It differentiated the varying levels of land contamination and found 
that the disease increased by 11% for each 100 kiloBecquerels of fallout per 
square metre of land surface. Professor Busby has applied this factor to the 
zone up to 100 km from the reactors, where IAEA has reported, on average, 
600kBq per sq.m radioactivity. In the 3.3 million population of this 100 km 
zone a 66% increase over and above the pre-accident rate is predicted in 10 
years. This implies 103,329 extra cancers due to the Fukushima exposures 
between 2012 and 2021. 

Similarly applying the "Tondel" method to the ring between 100 km and 200 km 
from Fukushima (population 7.8 million but lower concentrations of fallout) 
120,894 extra cancers are to be expected by 2021. 

Assuming permanent residence and no evacuation the total predicted yield 
according to the "Tondel" method is thus 224,223 in ten years. 

The second method is derived from weighting factors advised by the ECRR on the 
basis of the different ways in which different radionuclides behave in 
biological systems. This predicts 191,986 extra cancers in the 0 - 100km 
circle and 224,623 in the outer ring. Probably half of these will be expressed 
in the first ten years and the remainder between 10 and 50 years. 

Assuming permanent residence and no evacuation the total predicted yield 
according to the second method will be 416,619 of which 208,310 will appear in 
the first ten years. There is thus good agreement between the two methods. 

The ICRP method predicts 6158 additional cancers in 50 years which, among the 
2½ million cancer cases expected normally in that population over half a 
century, would be invisible and deniable. 

The report with all methods, assumptions and data is available from:

- -- 


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