IMF "gets" the peak oil issue!??

[Paul Mobbs]

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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/pdf/sum.pdf
(see also http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/RES040711A.htm )

PRESS POINTS FOR CHAPTER 3: OIL SCARCITY, GROWTH, AND GLOBAL IMBALANCES

World Economic Outlook, April 2011

# Global oil markets are in a period of increased scarcity, reflecting rapid 
growth in oil demand in emerging economies and a downshift in oil supply 
growth.

# Gradual and moderate increases in oil scarcity -- which seems to be the most 
likely scenario––would have a small impact on medium-term global economic 
growth. However, risks remain that scarcity or its growth impact could be more 
significant.

# A persistent adverse oil supply shock would imply a surge in global capital 
flows and a widening of current account imbalances.

# Policies should aim at facilitating adjustment to unexpected changes in oil 
scarcity and at lowering risks from larger-than-expected medium-term oil 
scarcity.


The recent trend increase in oil prices suggests that the global oil market 
has entered a period of increased scarcity... 
Scarcity is reinforced by the low responsiveness of both oil demand and oil 
supply to price changes, especially in the short-to-medium term... 
It would be premature to conclude that oil scarcity will inevitably be a 
strong constraint on global growth... 
However, such benign effects on global growth should not be taken for granted 
since scarcity or its growth effects could be more significant...
A persistent adverse oil supply shock would imply a surge in global capital 
flows from oil exporters to importers and a widening of current account 
imbalances...

- -- 

.

"We are not for names, nor men, nor titles of Government,
nor are we for this party nor against the other but we are
for justice and mercy and truth and peace and true freedom,
that these may be exalted in our nation, and that goodness,
righteousness, meekness, temperance, peace and unity with
God, and with one another, that these things may abound."
(Edward Burrough, 1659 - from 'Quaker Faith and Practice')

Paul's book, "Energy Beyond Oil", is out now!
For details see http://www.fraw.org.uk/mei/ebo/

Read my 'essay' weblog, "Ecolonomics", at:
http://www.fraw.org.uk/mei/ecolonomics/

Paul Mobbs, Mobbs' Environmental Investigations
3 Grosvenor Road, Banbury OX16 5HN, England
tel./fax (+44/0)1295 261864
email - mobbsey at gn.apc.org
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