IMF "gets" the peak oil issue!??
mobbsey at gn.apc.org
Fri Apr 8 09:51:32 BST 2011
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(see also http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/RES040711A.htm )
PRESS POINTS FOR CHAPTER 3: OIL SCARCITY, GROWTH, AND GLOBAL IMBALANCES
World Economic Outlook, April 2011
# Global oil markets are in a period of increased scarcity, reflecting rapid
growth in oil demand in emerging economies and a downshift in oil supply
# Gradual and moderate increases in oil scarcity -- which seems to be the most
likely scenario––would have a small impact on medium-term global economic
growth. However, risks remain that scarcity or its growth impact could be more
# A persistent adverse oil supply shock would imply a surge in global capital
flows and a widening of current account imbalances.
# Policies should aim at facilitating adjustment to unexpected changes in oil
scarcity and at lowering risks from larger-than-expected medium-term oil
The recent trend increase in oil prices suggests that the global oil market
has entered a period of increased scarcity...
Scarcity is reinforced by the low responsiveness of both oil demand and oil
supply to price changes, especially in the short-to-medium term...
It would be premature to conclude that oil scarcity will inevitably be a
strong constraint on global growth...
However, such benign effects on global growth should not be taken for granted
since scarcity or its growth effects could be more significant...
A persistent adverse oil supply shock would imply a surge in global capital
flows from oil exporters to importers and a widening of current account
"We are not for names, nor men, nor titles of Government,
nor are we for this party nor against the other but we are
for justice and mercy and truth and peace and true freedom,
that these may be exalted in our nation, and that goodness,
righteousness, meekness, temperance, peace and unity with
God, and with one another, that these things may abound."
(Edward Burrough, 1659 - from 'Quaker Faith and Practice')
Paul's book, "Energy Beyond Oil", is out now!
For details see http://www.fraw.org.uk/mei/ebo/
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Paul Mobbs, Mobbs' Environmental Investigations
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