[Diggers350] Taboo? Record net migration and the rising demand for housing
Tony Gosling
tony at cultureshop.org.uk
Wed Jun 14 00:02:35 BST 2023
08Jun23: Record net migration and the rising demand for housing
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/514/record-net-migration-and-the-rising-demand-for-housing
Emacs!
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/pdfs/MW514-record-net-migration-and-the-rising-demand-for-housing.pdf
8 June, 2023
Summary
1. If net migration to the UK is allowed to
continue at the present record level of 606,000
per year, the UK population is projected to grow
by more than 15 million by 2046 far surpassing
the level of 80 million before mid-century. It is
estimated that this would result in the need to
build between six and eight million more homes -
equal to between 15 and 18 more cities the size
of Birmingham.[1] In contrast, if net migration
were reduced to 100,000 per year or less, the
impact of the housing shortage would be eased and
young people would have a brighter prospect of
putting their feet on the property ladder. Doing
so would also preserve more beautiful UK
countryside from being bulldozed to make way for housing.
Key points
* The UK population is now 67 million but new
Migration Watch UK projections estimate that it
will increase to between 83 and 87 million by
2046 if net migration continues at the record
level of just over 600,000 per year.
* Immigration is the largest component of demand for additional housing
* Population growth over that period would
mean the need to build between six and eight
million more homes, depending upon assumptions.
* That is equivalent to between 15 and 18
cities the size of Birmingham, which in 2021 had
423,500 households (according to Census statistics).
* Cutting net migration levels to 100,000 per
year or less would help young people to get on
the property ladder and preserve more of our
beautiful UK countryside from being lost forever to housebuilding.
Introduction
2. High immigration has worsened the UKs housing
crisis by injecting significant additional demand
when there is already insufficient available
accommodation. This means higher prices.
Government analysis suggests that high
immigration since the late 1990s helped to drive
up house prices by a
fifth.[<https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/699846/OFF_SEN_Ad_Hoc_SFR_House_prices_v_PDF.pdf>2]
As a government minister put it recently: It is
obvious that a rising population due to net
migration puts pressure on housing supply,
ultimately leading to rising
prices.[<https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2023-05-23/%31%38%36%34%38%30>3]
A housing analyst explained: The worsening
housing shortage makes properties less affordable
as rising demand for homes and insufficient
supply contribute to pushing prices further
up.[<https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/record-migration-is-making-the-housing-crisis-worse-7s26dzjf7#:~:text=The%20government%27s%20stated%20target%2C%20now,be%20much%20higher%20than%20expected>4]
3. Immigration is the largest component of rising
demand. The most recent set of household
projections produced by the Office for National
Statistics, based on 2018 data, suggest that
immigration at a level of net migration to
England which is around half the present level
would account for a majority (57%) of additional
households during the 25 years until
2043.[<https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/486/impact-of-immigration-on-demand-for-homes-in-england>5]
4. The government has set a target (now
advisory) to build 300,000 homes per year. This
target was calculated on the basis of underlying
demographic factors, household formation rates
and trends in the housing market as well as
ongoing net migration levels. However, the
current level of immigration far outstrips the
target (which is based on 2016 analysis of 2012
statistics). One analyst has argued that when
household formation and market trends are taken
into account, England actually needed to build
461,000 homes in 2022 to cope with demand that
has been hugely boosted by high
immigration.[<https://capx.co/thanks-to-migration-were-running-up-a-down-escalator-when-it-comes-to-housing/>6]
Yet the annual increase in the dwelling stock in
England has averaged only 180,000 per year over
the past decade, while the number of homes added
in 2022 was just 235,000. The insufficient supply
of homes will only be exacerbated as high
immigration continues to drive up demand.
5. Some commentators suggest boosting
housebuilding is the answer. But tackling this
deepening crisis requires immigration to be
reduced. Since the last record spike in numbers
immigration in 2015, the drive to bulldoze UK
countryside to make way for more homes has become
more intense. The number of local authorities
giving way to applications for building on green
belt land has risen in recent years. Government
statistics show that approximately 65 square
miles of supposedly protected land was set
aside for housebuilding between 2015 and
2021.[<https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2020-to-2021/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2020-21-statistical-release>7]
And apart from protected land being added in the
North East of England, during 2021/22 every other
region saw net losses in green belt
land.[<https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2021-to-2022/local-authority-green-belt-england-2021-22-statistical-release#Table-4>8]
6. Migration Watch UK estimates that, should net
migration remain at 606,000 per annum, it would
mean the need to build housing equal to between
15 and 18 cities the size of Birmingham just to
accommodate the population rise over that period,
not even accounting for the future housing needs
of the base population. Where would all of these
homes be built? Which areas of natural beauty
would fall victim to the bulldozer if this were to occur?
Emacs!
The impact of immigration
7. Over the past 25 years, the UK population has
increased by nearly nine million, from just over
58 million in 1996 to 67 million in 2021. This
has meant the need for more than four million
more homes. Average household size has fluctuated
slightly above and then below the level of 2.4
people per household. It now stands at 2.35 people per household.
8. Between 1996 and 2022, net migration from
overseas to the UK has run at an average level of
190,000 per year. However, the five-year average
level has tripled from 113,000 between 1996 and
2000 to 347,000 between 2018 and 2022. The record
level of net migration for the UK was reached in
2022 when 606,000 more people immigrated to the
UK than emigrated more than double the average
net migration level during the twenty years
before that, which was about a quarter of a million (see Figure 1 below).
Emacs!
Table 1: Numbers and percentage of increase in
households by place of birth of household
reference
person[<https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/articles/familiesandhouseholdsstatisticsexplained/2021-03-02>9]
for different periods up to 2019 (ONS Labour Force Survey).
Figure 1: Net migration to the UK, 1996 to 2022
(ONS long-term migration estimates). Households
headed by those born overseas
9. According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey
of private households, the number of households
headed by persons born who were outside the UK
rose by 2.7 million between 1990 and 2019. The
number increased from 1.6 million out of a total
of 22.6 million in 1990 (7%) to 4.3 million, out
of just over 27 million (15% of the total) by 2019.
10. As Table 1 below shows, since 1995, 65% of
the additional households created in the UK for
whom birth place data was recorded have been
headed by a person born overseas.
Population projections upon which these estimates are based
11. The findings of this paper are based upon UK
population projections produced by Migration
Watch UK - for the period from 2021 until 2046.
One of the key variables in population
projections is the question of what the total
fertility rate (or TFR, i.e. the average number
of children that born to a female over their
lifetime) is likely to be going forward.
12. To provide historical context, during the
period between 1996 and 2021, the UKs TFR has
fallen from just over 1.90 births per woman in
2010 and 2012 to just 1.53 births per woman in
2021 well below replacement level. See Figure 2 below.
13. For the first set of population projections
contained in this paper, the TFR is estimated to
continue at the level of 1.53. The use of such an
assumption is debateable as the lowest recent TFR
in 2021 may have been inextricably linked to the
unique conditions of the Covid pandemic which
persisted into that year. Indeed, there was a
slight uptick in TFR in 2021 in England and
Wales. However, it remains to be seen whether such a trend will continue.
Emacs!
Figure 2: Total fertility rate for the UK, 1975 to 2021 (ONS births data).
14. However, it is also possible that the UKs
TFR will return to levels last seen in 2015/16 as
a result of an improvement in the general
economic and political outlook and a reduction of
inflation. In order to provide an upper range for
our population projections, an alternative set of
projections includes a conjectural assumption of
1.77 births per woman going forward.
15. Figures 3 and 4 show the population
projections at varying levels of net migration
until the mid-2040s assuming TFR of both 1.53 and
1.77 respectively. It must be remembered that
projections only show the implications for the
future if the initial assumptions continue to
hold. The lower level of TFR shows a range
between the population initially remaining stable
(before beginning a decline) at a level of net
migration of 100,000 per year by 2046, and an
increase to 83 million should the level of net
migration remain at 606,000 per year.
Emacs!
Figure 3: Projected population of the UK
2021-2046 (millions) at various levels of net
migration. TFR = 1.53. Migration Watch UK analysis.
16. The higher level of TFR suggests a population
in the range of between 70 million (at net
migration of 100,000 per year) and a higher
potential population level of nearly 87 million
by 2046 if net migration continues to run at the
present record level of 606,000 per year.
Emacs!
Figure 4: Projected population of the UK
2021-2046 (millions) at various levels of net
migration. TFR = 1.77. Migration Watch UK analysis.
Household growth, household size and population change
17. Change in the number of households is driven
by population trends, adjustments in the
age-structure of the population, social factors
and birth and death rates all of which
influence the number of people living by
themselves and in households of different sizes.
18. For most of the 20th century the number of
households rose faster than population growth.
Households in 1911 had an average of more than
four people per dwelling, but this fell to just under 2.4 by 2022.
Emacs!
Figure 5: Average UK household size (number of
persons per household) since 1996 (ONS).
Assumed household size for these projections
19. Our projections are based upon a household
size going forward between 2.3 and 2.5 people per
household, with a mid-point estimate of 2.4
people per household. We explain the use of this assumption below.
20. In their most recent household projections
(principal projection, 2018-based figures), the
ONS have suggested that the average household
size may fall to 2.24 by the early 2040s. Such a
fall would be broadly line with the trend that
has seen household size fall from 2.42 in 1996 to
2.36 in 2022 (see Figure 5 above). Over the
period of projection, on these assumptions,
household size would average 2.3 (2018 to
2043).[10] We take this latter figure as the
lower bound of our assumed household size as it
appears to represent the latest indication of the
ONS view on projected household size in the period up until the 2040s.
21. For an upper boundary of estimated household
size, we take into account the fact that
migrant-led household sizes are larger on average
than those led by UK-born people.
[<https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/internationalmigrationandthechangingnatureofhousinginenglandwhatdoestheavailableevidenceshow/2017-05-25>11]
Net migration levels are now at a record high
and a growing proportion of population growth has
been the direct or indirect result of immigration
(this share having risen from 70% in 2012 to 90%
in 2019). This might exert upward pressure on
household size. For example, in London which
received net overseas migration totalling 1.2
million between 2001 and 2019 and where around
half of current heads of households were born
outside of the UK - household size has risen
significantly, up from 2.35 to
2.69.[<https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CPS_THE_CASE_FOR_HOUSEBUILDING2.pdf>12]
However, other factors (e.g. the increase in the
number of people living alone) could counteract
any such effect. We take 2.5 as our upper limit
of household size across the projection period.
22. We take the mid-point between 2.3 and 2.5 as
the basis for our estimate, i.e. 2.4 people per
household. The projections assume a constant
ratio of household size to population size. They
take no account of changes in the distribution of
household size, for example the increase of
single-person households of older people.
Potential impact on household numbers as a result of population change
a) Lower scenario (Total Fertility Rate: 1.53)
23. In order to calculate what the above might
mean for the change in the number of households,
it is first necessary to calculate the total
share of the UK population which consists of the
household population i.e. that part of the
population living in private households, not in
communal establishments of various kinds.[13] The
total household population in 2018 accounted for
98% of the total UK population in the ONSs
mid-year estimate. We therefore take this as the
basis for our proportion of the household
population as a share of projected UK population going forward.
24. We divide projected population totals by 2.4
people per household. This indicates projected
change in the number of households at different
levels of migration. However, it needs to be
stressed that these projections do not take into
account factors such as household formation rates
or housing market trends, nor do they account for
the future additional housing needs of the base
UK population. Table 2 below shows our estimates
using the TFR assumption of 1.53 births per
woman. They indicate that net migration of
606,000 per year would drive a total population
increase of nearly 16 million over the 25-year
period, with 6.5 million more households
resulting from such growth alone.[14] Again,
these numbers would be in addition to the
housebuilding that is always needed even in the
absence of any population growth. Cutting net
migration to 100,000 per year would greatly
reduce the pressure of increased demand for housing compared with 606,000.
Emacs!
Table 2: Estimated increase in the number of
households to 2046 at different levels of
projected population growth by migration variant.
TFR: 1.53. Migration Watch UK analysis. These
projected numbers would be in addition to the
housebuilding that is always needed even in the
absence of any population growth. Population
projections at different migration variants (TFR:
1.53)Net migration: 100,000 per yearNet
migration: 245,000 per yearNet migration: 350,000
per yearNet migration: 488,000 per yearNet
migration: 606,000 per year Population change:
2021-2046minus 196,000 5,586,000 7,644,000 12,054,000 15,778,000
Estimated change in number of households
(2021-46) at average household size of 2.4 minus
82,000 2,327,500 3,185,000 5,022,500 6,574,167
Added homes needed per year due to population
growth N/A 93,100 127,400 200,900 262,967
b) Higher scenario (Total Fertility Rate: 1.77)
25. Table 3 below shows estimated household
growth by 2046 under a population projection
scenario including an assumed TFR of 1.77 births per woman.
26. The projections suggest that if net migration
continues at the present level of 606,000 per
year, the population would rise to just under 87
million over 25 years (an increase of nearly 19
million), resulting in an increase of nearly
eight million households. This would mean the
need to build more than 310,000 homes per year on
the basis of population increase over the period
alone (i.e. additional to the needs of the base population).
27. In contrast, a net migration scenario of
100,000 per year, even at a TFR of 1.77, only
increases the population by 2.4 million, meaning
less than a million more households over the period (40,000 more per year).
Emacs!
Table 3: Estimated increase in the number of
households at different levels of projected
population growth by migration variant. TFR:
1.77. Migration Watch UK analysis. NB These
projected numbers would be in addition to the
housebuilding that is always needed even in the
absence of any population growth. Population
projections at different migration variants (TFR:
1.77)Net migration: 100,000 per yearNet
migration: 245,000 per yearNet migration: 350,000
per yearNet migration: 488,000 per yearNet
migration: 606,000 per year Population change:
2021-2046 2,352,000 7,056,000 10,486,000
14,994,000 18,816,000 Estimated change in number
of households (2021-46) at average household size
of 2.980,000 2,940,000 4,369,170 6,247,500
7,840,000 Added homes needed per year due to
population growth 39,200 117,600 174,767 249,900 313,600
Conclusion
28. In 2021, while giving evidence to a
parliamentary committee, then Home Secretary
Priti Patel admitted that the UK simply do[es]
not have the infrastructure or the accommodation
to meet demand created by those arriving from
abroad.[<https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/2914/pdf/>15]
Given the UK was already in the midst of an acute
housing shortage, it is relevant to ask why the
government enacted policy changes that would
drive immigration up to levels never seen before
in British history. Ministers despite having been
elected on clear and repeated manifesto promises
to do the very opposite. As the number of
arrivals from abroad continues to rise very
sharply due to record work, study and family
visas, refugee immigration running into hundreds
of thousands per year and the untrammelled flow
of illegal boats across the English Channel, the
UKs housing crisis has no end in sight. It is
set to worsen unless urgent action is taken now
to significantly lower the level of immigration to the UK.
29. Immigration has driven up house prices,
making it more difficult more many to afford a
mortgage deposit. Such trends are set to continue
as added demand from overseas arrivals
skyrockets. Indeed, this paper has shown that, if
current levels of immigration continue, the UK
will have to build between 15 and 18 more cities
the size of Birmingham to house the growing UK
population; a population that would be on course
to hit between 83 and 87 million by 2046. To
urgently ease congestion strains and crippling
pressure on housing, land, community amenities
and the environment, it is essential that the
government reduces net migration to the UK to
less than 100,000 per year. As well as helping to
ease the housing crisis, this would also protect
more of the UKs irreplaceable countryside from
being bulldozed and lost forever.
Footnotes
* Census figures for 2021 show that
Birmingham presently has 423,500 households with
a population of 1.1 million people.
* Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local
Government bulletin, Analysis of the
determinants of house price changes, April 2018,
URL:
<https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/699846/OFF_SEN_Ad_Hoc_SFR_House_prices_v_PDF.pdf>https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste
N_Ad_Hoc_SFR_House_prices_v_PDF.pdf
* Parliamentary answer, 31 May 2023. The
Minister added: There is evidence suggesting
that immigration has contributed to rising house
prices. The impact on prices in a local area of
course depends on local supply and a variety of
other factors. The Migration Advisory Committee
found in 2018 that at a local authority level a
1% increase in population due to net migration
increased house prices by 1%. DLUHC internal
analysis supports a link between net migration
and rising house prices. URL:
<https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2023-05-23/%31%38%36%34%38%30>https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2023-05-23/%31%38%36%34%38%30
* Aynsley Lammin, Record migration is making
the housing crisis worse, The Sunday Times, 28
May 2023, URL:
<https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/record-migration-is-making-the-housing-crisis-worse-7s26dzjf7#:~:text=The%20government%27s%20stated%20target%2C%20now,be%20much%20higher%20than%20expected>https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/record-migration-is-making-the
e%20much%20higher%20than%20expected.
* The 57% figure is calculated by subtracting
the increase under a zero migration scenario from
the increase envisioned by the ONSs high
migration scenario (at 263,000 per year to
England about half of the present level of net
migration). This would mean 2.7 million homes
needing to be built due to future immigration
alone out of a total increase over the period of
4.7 million (or 57%). See our January 2021 paper,
Impact of immigration on demand for homes in
England, URL:
<https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/486/impact-of-immigration-on-demand-for-homes-in-england>https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/486/impact-of-imm
tion-on-demand-for-homes-in-england ONS
2018-based household projections, published June
2020, URL:
<https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2018based>https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand
holdprojectionsforengland/2018based
* Karl Williams in CapX, Thanks to
migration, were running up a down escalator when
it comes to housing, June 2023, URL:
<https://capx.co/thanks-to-migration-were-running-up-a-down-escalator-when-it-comes-to-housing/>https://capx.co/thanks-to-migration-were-running-up-a-down-escalator-when-it-comes-to-housing/
* For the 2020/21 green belt statistics, see
here. URL:
<https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2020-to-2021/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2020-21-statistical-release>https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-be
england-2020-21-statistical-release Also read our
piece from March 2021. URL:
<https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2021/03/12/save-our-green-space-by-restoring-sense-to-immigration-policy>https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2021/03/12/save-our-green-s
storing-sense-to-immigration-policy
* Gov.UK, Local authority green belt:
England 2021-22 - statistical release, September
2022, URL:
<https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-belt-statistics-for-england-2021-to-2022/local-authority-green-belt-england-2021-22-statistical-release#Table-4>https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/local-authority-green-be
2021-22-statistical-release#Table-4
* According to the ONS, a 'household
reference person' (HRP) is (current definition,
post-2001) the householder, who is the household
member who owns the accommodation; is legally
responsible for the rent; or occupies the
accommodation as reward of their employment, or
through some relationship to its owner who is not
a member of the household. If there are joint
householders, the one with the highest income is
the HRP. If their income is the same, then the
eldest one is the HRP. ONS, URL:
<https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/articles/familiesandhouseholdsstatisticsexplained/2021-03-02>https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsa
holdsstatisticsexplained/2021-03-02
* For example, see the ONS 2018-based
household projections, principal projection,
released June 2020, which estimates a household size of 2.24 in 2043.
* The ONS has said: In 2015, the average
household size in England where the (head of
household) was born in the UK was 2.3 residents
per household. The average household size where
the (head of household) was born outside the EU
was 3.0 residents per household, which is
slightly higher than that for households where
the (head of household) was EU born (2.6
residents). ONS, International migration and
the changing nature of housing in England what
does the available evidence show?, May 2017,
URL:
<https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/internationalmigrationandthechangingnatureofhousinginenglandwhatdoestheavailableevidenceshow/2017-05-25>https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand
theavailableevidenceshow/2017-05-25
* Centre for Policy Studies, The Case for
Housebuilding, URL:
<https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CPS_THE_CASE_FOR_HOUSEBUILDING2.pdf>https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CPS_THE_CASE_FOR_HOUSEBUILDING2.pdf
* For the 2011 census a household was defined
as: one person living alone; or a group of
people (not necessarily related) living at the
same address who share cooking facilities and
share a living room or sitting room or dining area.
* Again this number does not take into
account household formation rates and housing
market trends from which the current government
target of 300,000 (which is based upon 2014
projections) is derived, so the actual number of
homes needed may vary considerably.
* The context of these comments was in
discussion of the resettlement of Afghans to the
UK following the seizure of power by the Taliban
in August 2021. Q2, p.3 of then Home Secretary
Priti Patels testimony to a House of Lords
committee, October 2021, URL:
<https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/2914/pdf/>https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/2914/pdf/
Also see our piece published in February 2022,
URL:
<https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/02/10/we-simply-do-not-have-the-infrastructure-or-the-accommodation-admits-home-secretary>https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/02/10/we-simply-do-not
accommodation-admits-home-secretary
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"And I think, in the end, that is the best
definition of journalism I have heard; to
challenge authority - all authority - especially
so when governments and politicians take us to
war, when they have decided that they will kill
and others will die. " --Robert Fisk
'Capitalism is institutionalised bribery' TG
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'From South America, where payment must be made
with subtlety, the Bormann organization has made
a substantial contribution. It has drawn many of
the brightest Jewish businessmen into a
participatory role in the development of many of
its corporations, and many of these Jews share
their prosperity most generously with Israel. If
their proposals are sound, they are even provided
with a specially dispensed venture capital fund.
I spoke with one Jewish businessmen in Hartford,
Connecticut. He had arrived there quite unknown
several years before our conversation, but with
Bormann money as his leverage. Today he is more
than a millionaire, a quiet leader in the
community with a certain share of his profits
earmarked as always for his venture capital
benefactors. This has taken place in many other
instances across America and demonstrates how
Bormanns people operate in the contemporary
commercial world, in contrast to the fanciful
nonsense with which Nazis are described in so much literature.
So much emphasis is placed on select Jewish
participation in Bormann companies that when
Adolf Eichmann was seized and taken to Tel Aviv
to stand trial, it produced a shock wave in the
Jewish and German communities of Buenos Aires.
Jewish leaders informed the Israeli authorities
in no uncertain terms that this must never happen
again because a repetition would permanently
rupture relations with the Germans of Latin
America, as well as with the Bormann
organization, and cut off the flow of Jewish
money to Israel. It never happened again, and the
pursuit of Bormann quieted down at the request of
these Jewish leaders. He is residing in an
Argentinian safe haven, protected by the most
efficient German infrastructure in history as
well as by all those whose prosperity depends on his well-being.'
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